Google’s Android Crushes Apple’s iOS In Smartphone Shipments–But Does It Matter?

Source: IDC

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

Just four years after its debut, Google’s Android mobile operating software now claims 75% of mobile units shipped, according to a new report from market researcher IDC.

In the third quarter, according to IDC, some 136 million Android handsets shipped, almost double the 71 million shipped in last year’s third quarter. Devices using Apple’s iOS grew by a far lower 57%, to 26.9 million handsets, for a surprisingly low 15% market share. Don’t even ask about Blackberry or Windows Mobile. It’s a two-horse race for now.

Some folks wonder if this trend is heading toward a rerun of the Windows PC vs. the Mac. Maybe, and it’s got to be something that worries Apple CEO Tim Cook, who hardly wants to be the guy who let the mobile revolution get away.

But in the short to medium-term, it’s doubtful this is a killer for Apple. Why?

For one, Apple’s share was probably especially low in the last quarter because the eagerly awaited iPhone 5 didn’t ship until September, very late in the quarter. Add in new iPad models just introduced, in a holiday quarter when Apple devices are probably still the gift people would prefer to give over Android gadgets, and it’s hard to imagine that Apple won’t see some rebound in the fourth quarter. …

Read the complete post at The New Persuaders.

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What Storm? Google Keeps Apple War Hot With New Tablets And A Phone

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

After Hurricane Sandy forced Google to cancel an event planned in New York today to show off new Android devices, it’s launching them anyway–keeping the search giant in pitched competition with Apple.

Google introduced two new sets of tablets, in addition to a new version of its intelligent personal assistant Google Now:

* A Nexus 7 seven-inch tablet with 16 GB of memory, double the previous low-end memory, for $199, the same price, and a 32 GB model for $249.  A new version of the Nexus 7 with a cellular connection and 32 GB for $299.

* The Nexus 4 smartphone, developed with Korea’s LG. As expected, it has a 4.2-inch display, as well as wireless charging so you don’t have to plug it into a power adapter. It’s $299, on sale starting Nov. 13.

* The Nexus 10 tablet, developed with Samsung, that adds a new full-size tablet to Google’s lineup. Available Nov. 14, it costs $399 for a 16 GB model and $499 for a 32 GB model.

The smaller tablets are intended to counter last week’s announcement by Apple of the iPad mini, its don’t-call-it-a-seven-inch tablet. Apple itself has clearly felt the new heat of competition, so while the iPad mini will likely sell well during the holiday season, Google’s new devices–along with Amazon.com’s Kindle Fire tablets, which Amazon says are selling well, and perhaps even Microsoft’s Surface tablet–help make it a real contest.

Apple CEO Tim Cook Is Blowing Smoke When He Dismisses Rival 7-Inch Tablets

Apple Introduces iPad Mini... and some new com...

Apple’s iPad mini

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

As a company that way more often than not comes out with superior products, Apple rarely appears defensive. Today was an exception.

On Apple’s fourth-quarter earnings call, CEO Tim Cook took repeated potshots at small tablets of the kind that–yes–Apple itself just debuted. The iPad mini is clearly aimed at blunting the appeal of seven-inch tablets such as Google’s Nexus 7 and Amazon.com’s Kindle Fire.

While I think Cook is probably right that the iPad will continue to dominate tablets, and even that it continues to make the best ones, his overenthusiastic criticism of seven-inch tablets struck me as surprisingly defensive. Saying Apple didn’t set out to build a “small, cheap tablet,” he called the competitors “compromised” products. “We would never make a seven-inch tablet,” he sniffed.

Why not? Because they’re too small, he said. The iPad mini is almost an inch larger, which means a 30% larger screen and 50% larger viewing area. I’ll grant that that is noticeable, and appealing.

But c’mon. These are all tablets you can hold in one hand, and acting as if the iPad mini is something utterly unique–”in a whole different league,” as he put it–comes off more than a bit desperate. Apple is clearly playing catch-up here, and trying to position the iPad mini as nothing like the Nexus 7 or Kindle Fire only serves to make us realize that Apple actually does feel threatened by these devices that beat it to what has turned out to be a real market. …

Read the complete post at The New Persuaders.

Why Didn’t Apple Sell More iPads In Q4?

Image representing iPad as depicted in CrunchBase

Image via CrunchBase

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

In a fiscal fourth quarter that slightly missed profit expectations, Apple reported one figure that looks especially worrisome: It sold only 14 million iPads.

You’re thinking, of course, are you crazy? Fourteen million, up 26% from a year ago ($7.5 billion worth of them), is a problem? Yes–because it’s at least 1 million below expectations already reduced by analysts who figured that if 100 million iPads were sold so far, as Apple announced at the iPad mini event, their 17.5 million fourth-quarter estimate was too high.

Update: After rising a fraction of 1% in initial after-hours trading, Apple’s shares moved up and down before flattening after the analyst call started. Shares had fallen 1% today, to $609.54.

There are a number of possible reasons iPad sales fell even shorter than expected. Here are some, pending comments on the analyst call currently underway, during which I’ll be updating this post–and there are a lot of questions on iPads:

* Cannibalization: This is the concern raised by some analysts: People who couldn’t quite justify $400 and up for a regular iPad were waiting for the iPad mini, which starts at $329. No one really knows how many people did this, but it seems likely some did. Update: Apple CEO Tim Cook essentially confirmed not cannibalization but delayed purchases thanks to iPad mini rumors.

* Shortages: When the iPad mini came out with a minimum price of $329, analysts wondered why it wasn’t closer to the other seven-inch tablets from Google and Amazon.com, whose base prices range from $159 to $199. It turns out that some components for the device are in short supply, so it didn’t make sense to price them lower and create demand Apple couldn’t fulfill. But perhaps the shortages affected current iPads as well?

* Consumer saturation: Well, I doubt it, since lower price points, the undeniable appeal of tablets to consumers, and the fact that  a lot of people still don’t have them all mean the iPad probably isn’t limited by demand. But it’s something to think about, given that 100 million have been sold already, very quickly.

And the most interesting possibility:

* Competition: Could Google’s Nexus 7, Amazon.com’s Kindle Fire, and other, full-size Android and Windows tablets finally hitting iPad sales? The market research numbers show millions of those devices have sold, so it’s a distinct possibility, especially ahead of the lower-cost iPad mini.

They’re still far below iPad sales. But it doesn’t take an Apple Genius to see that the arrival of at least decent rival tablets could be presenting real competition for the first time. That’s perhaps the most worrisome possibility if only because it seems the most likely–if not in the last quarter, at least in future quarters.

Here’s more from the analyst call: Apple is saying that it exceeded its own expectations for iPad sales. So assuming it’s not blowing smoke, maybe analysts just got ahead of themselves. Also, Apple says it had 3.4 million iPads in channel inventory in the quarter, or its target four weeks of inventory, so that’s potentially a factor in sales numbers. …

Read the complete post, with more from Tim Cook on the analyst call, at The New Persuaders.

Apple Leaves Gaping Price Hole Between iPad Mini And Rival Tablets

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

Let’s just get it over with at the outset and concede that Apple’s just-introduced iPad mini will be a holiday hit, selling millions of units to people who know they can’t go wrong giving a gift of a new Apple product.

And at a starting price of $329, that gift-giving isn’t a budget buster for many people. Let’s face it: Apple has yet another great-selling product on its hands, this time in the palm of ours.

And yet, I wonder if Apple just punted a chance to grind its rivals in smaller tablets, chiefly Google’s Nexus 7 and Amazon.com’s Kindle Fire, into the dust. The Nexus 7 starts at $199, the Kindle Fire even lower at $159. But Google also may release a new Nexus 7 model next week at an Android event, potentially dropping the price of the current low-end model to just $99.

OK, so let’s get something else over with. By all early reports so far, the iPad mini is better than either of those two existing devices. It feels better, it looks better, it’s lighter, it’s thinner, it even still has a noticeably larger screen and especially viewing area than the Nexus 7 or Kindle Fire. Not least, it has Apple’s App Store, with apps that fit the tablet form factor rather than plastering smartphone apps onto a bigger screen.

So yeah, millions of people will love it.

But millions of other people will be hearing a lot about the Nexus 7 and the Kindle Fire, too, and Google and Amazon.com have a huge incentive to advertise the heck out of them. Honestly, if you don’t do a side-by-side comparison, which is tough to do, you may pick up a Nexus 7 or a Kindle Fire and say, “Hey, this looks pretty good. Why do I need to spend an extra $130, or even more?”

That’s why it’s surprising that Apple, whose CEO Tim Cook has talked about not leaving a significant price umbrella for Apple products, did just that with the iPad mini.

Read the complete post at The New Persuaders.

LIVE: Apple Launches iPad Mini Starting At $329

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

We’re about to hear about Apple’s latest must-have product, so far dubbed the iPad Mini.

Whatever it’s called, it’s sure to shake up the already dynamic market for tablets. In particular, the rumored 7.85-inch iPad Mini could, depending on its price, instantly provide potentially crushing competition for Google’s Nexus 7 and Amazon.com’s Kindle Fire tablets.

You can watch the livestream of Apple’s event, which also is rumored to include a new MacBook Pro and a full-sized tablet updated with the latest Lightning connector and other features, on Apple’s site, at least on Safari-equipped PCs and iPhones and iPads. There are plenty of other people, including Forbes’ Connie Guglielmo, tracking every word and movement of Apple execs, so what follows here will be strictly the highlights from the livestream.

Just before the 10 a.m. Pacific start, panning cameras are following the crowd of journalists filing in to the California Theater in San Jose. … And we’re underway as CEO Tim Cook takes the stage, first to provide updates on the iPhone 5.

* There are now 200 million iOS devices out there.

* 300 billion iMessages have been sent, 28,000 per second.

* There are now 700,000 iOS apps, including 275,000 iPad apps.

* 35 billion apps have been downloaded from the App Store.

$ 6.5 billion has been paid out to Apple developers.

* Apple announces a new version of iBooks that features continuous scrolling and is better integrated with iCloud. You can also tap on a passage or quote and share it with friends on Facebook or Twitter.

Now on to the Mac. He says it has been outgrowing the PC market by about seven times in the past year, and has outgrown it for the past six years. It’s now the No. 1 desktop and No. 1 notebook in the U.S. “But we are not standing still. And we’ve got some really great stuff to show you  this morning.” Cue Phil Schiller, who notes that the 13-inch MacBook Pro is the best-selling Mac.

* And so, as expected, he shows the new 13-inch MacBook Pro. It’s three-quarters of an inch thick (or thin), 20% thinner, and weighs only 3.5 pounds, almost a pound lighter than the previous one. And four times the number of pixels in the Retina display–twice as many as a 52-inch HDTV. Flurry of new specs, chip, etc. “PowerNap” updates email, etc. while the computer is asleep.
Oh, the price: $1,699. It starts shipping today. MacBook Air starts at $999, Pro at $1,199, Pro with Retina $1,699.

Next, a new Mac Mini starting at $599. “You knew there would be something named Mini in this presentation, didn’t you?” he coyly asks.

And one more Mac thing: a new IMac. Yup, it’s ridiculously thin–only 5 millimeters, 80% thinner than the last one (though with a bulge in the middle of the back for, well, the computer. Almost looks like a stand for a real computer. “The most beautiful Mac we have ever made,” Schiller coos.

How did Apple make it that thin? “Isn’t it something how something new makes the previous thing instantly look old?” he notes, thus summing up neatly Apple’s business model. No optical drive is one reason it’s thinner. There are 27-inch and 21.5-inch models. They’re also up to 8 pounds lighter than the previous iMacs.

* Another new thing: The Apple Fusion Drive. It has 160 GB of flash storage with a 1-terabyte or 3-TB hard drive, fused into one drive. The point: You can use the flash storage for much faster access and the disk drive storage for stuff like movies you don’t need constantly.

Cook’s back with more news. Apple has sold its 100 millionth iPad, in just two and a half years.

* He also intros the new version of iBooks Author. Feels like a breather for the main event, and indeed, Cook goes back to the iPad.

* And so Schiller comes on to intro the fourth-generation iPad, which has a chip that’s two times faster, for speedier graphics. Also 10-hour battery, better camera, high-speed LTE cellular data connection with “greatly expanded” coverage. It starts at $499 for 16 GB of memory, $629 for the cellular model.

* And finally–the iPad mini! Yes, that’s what it’s called after all.

Why do you need a smaller one? Hold it in one hand–that’s one reason. And really everything else, he says.

* It’s 7.9 inches diagonally, 7.2 mm thick, 25% thinner than the regular iPad. Weighs only 0.68 pounds, 50% lighter. He even compares it to Google’s Nexus 7 (“and Android tablet”), saying that the iPad mini is aluminum and thinner, with a 35% larger display area–50% larger in viewing an actual web page. 

It’s interesting that Apple finds it necessary to compare the iPad mini to a specific rival, even if it’s unnamed. Clearly Apple has viewed it as a threat that it needs to blunt.

* So what’s inside? Apple A5 chip, FaceTime HD camera, 5 megapixel iSight camera, faster WiFi, Lightning connector, 10 hours of battery life.

* Yes, and the price? $329 for the low-end 16 MB WiFi version up to $529 for the 64 GB WiFi version. For the cellular models, $459 to $659.

Methinks that especially if Google comes out with a new $199 Nexus 7 next week and reprices the current low-end to $99–coupled with Amazon’s $159 low-end Kindle Fire–Apple may have left at least a small pricing window for those products. Or, maybe not so small. Will it be enough of a window given Apple’s customary premium (both in price and in product quality)? We’ll find out this holiday season.

Cook wraps up and that is indeed a wrap.

Facebook’s Mobile App Install Ads Get Moving

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

Exhortations to install apps are likely a significant chunk of Facebook’s advertising revenues, and now they’re poised to become an even bigger factor in the social network’s future. Today, two months after offering app install ads for mobile devices to a select group of app developers and their marketing partners, Facebook opened up the ads to anyone.

These ads appear right in people’s mobile news feeds, providing prime placement for games and other apps in Apple’s App Store for iPhones and iPads and Google’s Play store for Android devices. Not surprisingly, Facebook says in a blog post that mobile app install ads are already working:

In early results, beta partners like Kabam, Fab, TinyCo and Big Fish were able to reach a more relevant audience and efficiently drive installs. For example, TinyCo saw 50% higher CTRs and significantly higher conversion rates compared to their current mobile channels, as well as a significant increase in player engagement.

A select subset of Preferred Marketing Developers (PMDs) has been testing mobile app install ads and saw similarly positive results. For example, Nanigans’ clients efficiently achieved 8-10x the reach compared to other mobile ad buys. Ad Parlor saw consistent CTR’s from news feed of 1-2% from engaged users looking for iPhone and Android games that their friends were playing.

No doubt those numbers will come down as the novelty factor in any new ad or feature wears off. Still, even a fraction of those results would still be valuable to advertisers.

That’s assuming–and this is a fair assumption given Facebook’s wariness about ad overload–that the company doesn’t go over the top and overload people’s mobile news feeds with the ads. Avoiding overload is especially important for these ads because unlike many of Facebook’s marquee ads, they don’t have a social component, meaning they appear strictly in response to developers paying for them, not because a friend liked an app.

Too many of these ads that don’t have the appeal of a friend’s connection, and the dreaded banner blindness is likely to set in.

There also more coming to improve these ads, according to Facebook engineer Vijaye Raji:

In coming months, we’ll continue to make updates that improve the user experience and the performance of mobile app install ads. For example, you may be able to customize your ad unit based on your audience, ensure that your ads are only shown to people who have not installed your app on iOS or Android devices, and allow people to start installing your app without leaving Facebook.

The Real Reason We Can’t Stop Talking About Steve Jobs

Why do we remain so obsessed with Steve Jobs a year after his untimely death?

Sure, a large part is that Jobs was a business legend who built what is now one of the most valuable companies in the world, thanks to innovative, appealing products ranging from Apple‘s Mac and iPod to the iPhone and the iPad. And he was a design whiz, a master marketer, a uniquely demanding leader, a disruptor of industry after industry, a visionary, a dreamer–any of which would warrant close attention during his life.

If he hadn’t been any of those things, and hadn’t done everything he did, we certainly wouldn’t be paying so much attention to him–least of all a year after he succumbed to the ravages of pancreatic cancer. But he’s hardly the only phenomenally accomplished CEO or company founder. So it seems doubtful that’s why many of us, from the press to Apple customers even to people who don’t use Apple products, seem so interested in the man.

I think the biggest reason we can’t hear enough is simply because, like too few other CEOs, he came across as a genuine human being–complete with all the foibles and faults that today’s corporations so often manage to scrub clean from their leaders’ images. (You can certainly argue that he was a jerk, but that this was not hidden in the least is what I mean when I say “genuine.” You knew what you were getting with Jobs.) And this is despite Jobs’s and Apple’s own hermetically sealed environment when it comes to media coverage.

Jobs was fanatical about secrecy for his company’s doings, but his outsized personality defied any attempt to keep a lid on stories of how he operated as a leader, a friend, or even a subject of a random encounter. Plus, he was an inveterate storyteller himself, someone who seemed constitutionally unable to keep himself under wraps. It’s a lesson to business leaders that, while you have to deliver the goods, it also helps your company to show that you’re not just a talking head.

And so on this day when so many people are looking back at Jobs, his legacy and his life, here are a few places to indulge another look at the legend and the man:

* Longtime tech writer and Forbes staffer Connie Guglielmo’s magazine piece on Untold Stories About Steve Jobs.

* In an accompanying piece with videos, friends and colleagues reminiscenses about Jobs.

* A collection of stories on Quora, some from well-known tech figures as well as others who had personal contact with him.

* My own Five Small Stories About Steve Jobs from a year ago.

Read the rest of the list of story collections at The New Persuaders.

How Steve Jobs’ Laughable Early Apple Ads Evolved Into Today’s Marketing Marvels

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

To look at Apple’s classic advertisements, from the stark, bold “Think Different” campaign to the playful “Get a Mac” series to those minimalist silhouetted iPod ads, you’d never guess that early Apple ads were so–not to put too fine a point on it–awful.

On the one-year anniversary of Apple cofounder Steve Jobs’ untimely death, we scrounged up a baker’s dozen of early Apple ads in the accompanying photo gallery for your amusement and edification. They’re print ads in particular, since it was pretty early days to be advertising computers on television. Still, most them wouldn’t be recognizable as Apple ads if not for the name and early logos.

They weren’t especially worse than other computer ads at the time. Maybe they were even marginally better. But they were anything but special, let alone cool.

What’s interesting is not just that Apple’s early ads look so depressingly conventional. It’s that a few of them revealed flashes of Jobs’ future marvels of marketing. Once Jobs got past the initial “speeds and feeds” marketing imperative during a time when Apple was really just one, albeit prominent, competitor in a sea of pre-Windows, pre-Mac personal computer makers, he began to develop an eye for brand marketing that few companies in technology or any other industry have since surpassed.

Take a close look at these early ads, and you can see that Apple’s evolution to the pinnacle of brand marketing happened not in a straight line, but in a sort of punctuated equilibrium that parallels the gradual maturing of computing itself. At first, PCs were for hobbyists interested in performance and features, and the ads reflected that. But as the machines began to sell into the millions, Apple’s ads began to emphasize how they were “the computer for the rest of us,” as the first Macintosh ads called them.

That first one for the Apple-1 in 1976, rivetingly entitled “A Balance of Features,” was appallingly amateurish. The ad, released only a few months after Jobs and Steve Wozniak showed the prototype at the Homebrew Computer Club in SiliconValley and incorporated their company, was stuffed full of technical features in a way that’s unimaginable today. For instance, the ad touted the ability to attach a keyboard and monitor to allow “the efficient entry and examination of programs in hexidecimal notation.” Who knew?

There was even a misspelling in the first line, a sign that Jobs’ famous perfectionism hadn’t quite kicked in yet. …

Read the complete post, including a photo gallery of the ads, at The New Persuaders.

Facebook Live: Charlie Rose Interviews COO Sheryl Sandberg, VC Marc Andreessen

DAVOS/SWITZERLAND, 28JAN11 - Sheryl Sandberg, ...

Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg (Photo: Wikipedia)

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

For better or worse, you know a company is serious about putting forward a clear image of itself when it submits to an interview with Charlie Rose.

And so on Oct. 2, Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg and board member and uber-VC Marc Andreessen talked with the PBS journalist at the annual ad confab Advertising Week in New York, clearly in hopes of persuading brand marketers to invest much more on the No. 1 social network. Here’s a live account of what they had to say, paraphrased at times (especially when it comes to fast-talking Andreessen):

Rose asks Andreessen where advertising is heading in the Internet age.

Andreessen: People love the Internet and there’s such a powerful global phenomenon putting the world in people’s hands. We have the fundamental challenge in advertising and media: Most of the money is trapped on the wrong side. We still don’t have most of the money and advertisers moved over to online. We now can see that transition happen, particularly with mobile.

Sandberg: You went from radio to TV and print and then to online. We think Facebook represents the next stage of online and we’re still in the very beginning. Ads online today are onetime and one-way, no ongoing relationship. We’re at the very beginning of changing that. Businesses have an opportunity to change their relationships. They can establish an ongoing relationship. And members have 130 friends they can pass messages along to.

Rose: What are the challenges of mobile for Facebook?

Sandberg: Mobile is a huge opportunity for Facebook. There soon will be 5 billion phones. The engagement opportunities for us are obviously much, much higher. Our mobile users are much more engaged, and that forms the basis for monetization.

Also, the marketing messages can be put into the newsfeeds.

Rose: But does it in any way make the user unhappy?

Sandberg: We’re looking very carefully at this. We’ve been very pleased with the results. We’ve also seen a real improvement for marketers.

Rose: Has the monetization been slower than you expected?

Sandberg: Marketers understand they can’t just do the same campaigns. Then we have early adopters, and we’re working to help them understand. …

Read the complete post at The New Persuaders.

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