Why Do Obama Supporters Appear In Facebook Ads As Romney Fans?

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

Recently, I’ve been seeing a Sponsored Story ad on Facebook pages indicating that several friends “like” Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney. No surprise there. Sponsored Stories are those personalized ads the social network allows advertisers to run that show friends have “liked” a brand, and they’re increasingly common as Facebook doubles down on social advertising.

But what on Earth was the name of a friend, who I know is a vocal Obama supporter, doing on a Romney ad? The answer raises questions about how effective, or at least how accurate, these ads are–not necessarily due to a particular fault by Facebook but thanks to the byzantine rules and privacy features that have developed over years of user outrage and resulting Facebook accommodations.

Anyway, I asked my friend if he knew he was shilling for Romney. His response:

“Lol…..I liked him so I could see his FB feed. You should read my comments.” [Hint: They're not complimentary.]

To be clear, you can see Romney’s posts on his page without “liking” him, but to see them in your own news feed, you need to “like” him. And once you do, like it or not, you become potential fodder for an ad that will appear to your friends.

Another friend of a friend who’s an Obama supporter also was surprised to see his name on a Romney ad. He told his friend:

“I never liked his page. I commented on one of their crazy lies.. gave them a serious piece of my mind ya know!!!!! All kinds of people have been telling me why do u like Mitt???? I’m pissed!!!” …

Read the complete post at The New Persuaders.

About these ads

What Storm? Google Keeps Apple War Hot With New Tablets And A Phone

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

After Hurricane Sandy forced Google to cancel an event planned in New York today to show off new Android devices, it’s launching them anyway–keeping the search giant in pitched competition with Apple.

Google introduced two new sets of tablets, in addition to a new version of its intelligent personal assistant Google Now:

* A Nexus 7 seven-inch tablet with 16 GB of memory, double the previous low-end memory, for $199, the same price, and a 32 GB model for $249.  A new version of the Nexus 7 with a cellular connection and 32 GB for $299.

* The Nexus 4 smartphone, developed with Korea’s LG. As expected, it has a 4.2-inch display, as well as wireless charging so you don’t have to plug it into a power adapter. It’s $299, on sale starting Nov. 13.

* The Nexus 10 tablet, developed with Samsung, that adds a new full-size tablet to Google’s lineup. Available Nov. 14, it costs $399 for a 16 GB model and $499 for a 32 GB model.

The smaller tablets are intended to counter last week’s announcement by Apple of the iPad mini, its don’t-call-it-a-seven-inch tablet. Apple itself has clearly felt the new heat of competition, so while the iPad mini will likely sell well during the holiday season, Google’s new devices–along with Amazon.com’s Kindle Fire tablets, which Amazon says are selling well, and perhaps even Microsoft’s Surface tablet–help make it a real contest.

7 Great Places Online To Track Hurricane Sandy

Google Crisis Map of Hurricane SandyFrom my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

Assuming you’ve got power or even a cell phone signal by now, media and tech companies and tweeters galore are providing instant insight into where Hurricane Sandy is heading. Here are a few that go well beyond the reporter-in-the-rain TV coverage:

* Weather Channel livestream: The cable channel that no doubt will be seeing ratings skyrocket is running a livestream on YouTube of the latest news and frequent warnings about what to do (stay home!).

* New York Times live updates: The newspaper is posting live updates mostly on official news, along with an interactive map of evacuation zones.

* Wall Street Journal liveblog: The paper’s continuously updated blog has a wealth of information, including on-the-scene reporting of how folks are coping with the storm.

* Twitter: The hashtag #sandy brings up a (forgive me) flood of tweets related to the storm. Oddly enough, it’s not a trending topic, though “East Coast” and “FEMA” are. And not surprisingly, some people are finding ways to make a joke out of potential tragedy. A tweeter named @HurricaneSandy tweeted: YOU THINK I’M BAD? SEE WHAT HAPPENS IF MITT ROMNEY GETS ELECTED. Still, as in many crises, Twitter remains the place to get the latest, on-the-scene, unvarnished news. …

Read the complete post at The New Persuaders.

Apple CEO Tim Cook Is Blowing Smoke When He Dismisses Rival 7-Inch Tablets

Apple Introduces iPad Mini... and some new com...

Apple’s iPad mini

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

As a company that way more often than not comes out with superior products, Apple rarely appears defensive. Today was an exception.

On Apple’s fourth-quarter earnings call, CEO Tim Cook took repeated potshots at small tablets of the kind that–yes–Apple itself just debuted. The iPad mini is clearly aimed at blunting the appeal of seven-inch tablets such as Google’s Nexus 7 and Amazon.com’s Kindle Fire.

While I think Cook is probably right that the iPad will continue to dominate tablets, and even that it continues to make the best ones, his overenthusiastic criticism of seven-inch tablets struck me as surprisingly defensive. Saying Apple didn’t set out to build a “small, cheap tablet,” he called the competitors “compromised” products. “We would never make a seven-inch tablet,” he sniffed.

Why not? Because they’re too small, he said. The iPad mini is almost an inch larger, which means a 30% larger screen and 50% larger viewing area. I’ll grant that that is noticeable, and appealing.

But c’mon. These are all tablets you can hold in one hand, and acting as if the iPad mini is something utterly unique–“in a whole different league,” as he put it–comes off more than a bit desperate. Apple is clearly playing catch-up here, and trying to position the iPad mini as nothing like the Nexus 7 or Kindle Fire only serves to make us realize that Apple actually does feel threatened by these devices that beat it to what has turned out to be a real market. …

Read the complete post at The New Persuaders.

Why Didn’t Apple Sell More iPads In Q4?

Image representing iPad as depicted in CrunchBase

Image via CrunchBase

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

In a fiscal fourth quarter that slightly missed profit expectations, Apple reported one figure that looks especially worrisome: It sold only 14 million iPads.

You’re thinking, of course, are you crazy? Fourteen million, up 26% from a year ago ($7.5 billion worth of them), is a problem? Yes–because it’s at least 1 million below expectations already reduced by analysts who figured that if 100 million iPads were sold so far, as Apple announced at the iPad mini event, their 17.5 million fourth-quarter estimate was too high.

Update: After rising a fraction of 1% in initial after-hours trading, Apple’s shares moved up and down before flattening after the analyst call started. Shares had fallen 1% today, to $609.54.

There are a number of possible reasons iPad sales fell even shorter than expected. Here are some, pending comments on the analyst call currently underway, during which I’ll be updating this post–and there are a lot of questions on iPads:

* Cannibalization: This is the concern raised by some analysts: People who couldn’t quite justify $400 and up for a regular iPad were waiting for the iPad mini, which starts at $329. No one really knows how many people did this, but it seems likely some did. Update: Apple CEO Tim Cook essentially confirmed not cannibalization but delayed purchases thanks to iPad mini rumors.

* Shortages: When the iPad mini came out with a minimum price of $329, analysts wondered why it wasn’t closer to the other seven-inch tablets from Google and Amazon.com, whose base prices range from $159 to $199. It turns out that some components for the device are in short supply, so it didn’t make sense to price them lower and create demand Apple couldn’t fulfill. But perhaps the shortages affected current iPads as well?

* Consumer saturation: Well, I doubt it, since lower price points, the undeniable appeal of tablets to consumers, and the fact that  a lot of people still don’t have them all mean the iPad probably isn’t limited by demand. But it’s something to think about, given that 100 million have been sold already, very quickly.

And the most interesting possibility:

* Competition: Could Google’s Nexus 7, Amazon.com’s Kindle Fire, and other, full-size Android and Windows tablets finally hitting iPad sales? The market research numbers show millions of those devices have sold, so it’s a distinct possibility, especially ahead of the lower-cost iPad mini.

They’re still far below iPad sales. But it doesn’t take an Apple Genius to see that the arrival of at least decent rival tablets could be presenting real competition for the first time. That’s perhaps the most worrisome possibility if only because it seems the most likely–if not in the last quarter, at least in future quarters.

Here’s more from the analyst call: Apple is saying that it exceeded its own expectations for iPad sales. So assuming it’s not blowing smoke, maybe analysts just got ahead of themselves. Also, Apple says it had 3.4 million iPads in channel inventory in the quarter, or its target four weeks of inventory, so that’s potentially a factor in sales numbers. …

Read the complete post, with more from Tim Cook on the analyst call, at The New Persuaders.

Did The Bubble In Facebook Ad Startups Just Pop?

A little crowded, perhaps? (Source: LUMA Partners)

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

For much of this year, hundreds of little and not-so-little startups that help businesses run advertisements on Facebook have been playing the M&A game, buying rivals or related companies, getting acquired by bigger firms, or both. But the acquisitions were sometimes for big bucks, fueling a sense that the opportunities were huge for social marketing startups.

It’s not hard to find social marketing firms still thriving, but suddenly it’s looking a little more like a game of musical chairs. And while it would be easy (and wrong) to say the music has stopped, it’s becoming clear that a chunk of those firms will find themselves without a seat as the social media biz starts to mature and its growth chart no longer looks like a straight line up and to the right.

The recent struggles of Facebook and other social media firms such as Zynga aren’t new, of course. They prompted some folks to wonder if the social media bubble had popped a couple of months ago. But it appears now that advertiser uncertainty about social media is starting to hit the still-crowded ecosystem of social media marketing and ad firms.

Today, Salesforce.com laid off about 100 people from two social-media acquisitions, Radian6 and Buddy Media. Although it may not be surprising given likely job overlaps–and the fact that Buddy was losing big bucks before the sale–the layoff suggests that the market for social ads isn’t big enough to accommodate all the players that have sprung up in recent years, or at least all the employees working for them.

Read the complete post at The New Persuaders.

Facebook: Yes, Our Ads Work, Chapter 16

From my Forbes.com blog The New Persuaders:

Facebook has spent much of the past year furiously trying to persuade skeptical brand marketers that ads on its service work. In particular, it wants brands with large fan bases on Facebook not to assume that–like General Motors apparently did when it pulled its Facebook ads just before the No. 1 social network’s May IPO–they can simply post stuff to their Facebook pages and call it a day.

Its latest salvo: A new report conducted with market researcher comScore that tries to quantify the impact of paid ads vs. “organic” brand page content.

Some highlights from the report, which includes case studies of Samsung Mobile and two unnamed “major” brands, a retailer and a financial services firm:

• Leading brands on Facebook can use paid media to extend their total brand reach beyond the reach they achieve using organic media alone. Among a selection of 100 top brand pages on Facebook, those using paid media reach an audience that is on average 5.3 times larger than organic audience alone, and 5.4 times greater than the total audience of top brand pages using no paid media with a similarly sized fan base. …

Read all the details at The New Persuaders.

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